Forecast: CPO Price Stabilization and Factors Influencing in March 2024

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Forecast: CPO Price Stabilization and Factors Influencing in March 2024. Photo by: Palmoilmagazine.com

PALMOILMAGAZINE, JAKARTA – The United States government has approved the sale of E15 gasoline (gasoline blended with 15% ethanol) starting this year, with availability expected by April 2025, marking significant progress. However, there will be regulations imposed on the sale of E15 gasoline during the summer months due to environmental concerns regarding emissions. The increased consumption of ethanol is anticipated to result in a reduction in biodiesel consumption.

In Brazil, the largest agricultural cooperative commenced the year 2024 with seed stocks approximately 50% higher than those in 2023, attributed to abundant harvests and declining exports. Agroindustri Coamo, a company involved in the procurement and marketing of beans, seeds, and other crops in Brazil, reported that soybean oil deliveries from plants in 2024 have put pressure on available storage capacity.

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In late February, the Indonesian Palm Oil Association (IPOA) announced that palm oil stocks in Indonesia had reached approximately 3.14 million tons as of December 31, 2023, marking the lowest stock level since 2015.

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As quoted from Palm Pulse, by the end days of spring season, palm oil production in March could make it as the anticipation to production recovery in April.

Soyoil supplies from South America could have something to do with soyoil price in the globe. The soyoil harvest in Brazil reached 48% in progress on 29 February, the projection could be 70% in March. Soyoil harvest in Argentina could start in the second week of March.

Both Malaysia and Indonesia now have palm oil stocks in the lowest level. Still from Palm Pulse, crude palm oil (CPO) price prospect in March could remain stable to it in February at about RM 3,700 (US$ 777) to RM 3,950 (US$ 830) with the same trade.

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The strong price trend in the first two months of 2024 mostly had something to do with supply deficit. When palm oil production got lower in March, it might reflect production recovery level and the supplies in April and May. This potentially restricts palm oil price.

Besides, palm oil got more expensive than soft oil (production) that kept increasing in February. Palm oil premium price to sunflower oil in Europe, escalated from US$ 38 to be US$ 65 in February, while soyoil premium price was at US$ 70. This might mean that palm oil for first time surpassed the main soft oils price in the same time in Europe. (T2)

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