PALMOILMGAZINE, BALI, — At the Indonesia Palm Oil Conference (IPOC) 2025 and Price Outlook 2026 in Nusa Dua, optimism over a stronger global palm oil market resurfaced as Dorab Mistry, Director of Godrej International Ltd., outlined a series of factors that he believes will push the industry into a bullish phase throughout 2026. However, he emphasized that the sustainability of this momentum will depend heavily on government decisions—especially those made by Indonesia.
Mistry opened his presentation with a straightforward overview of global vegetable oil fundamentals: production is stagnant while demand continues to grow.
“Current oilseed prices are not attractive. Farmers across the world are unhappy and not making profits. Oilseed planting is stagnant almost everywhere,” he said during the session attended by Palmoilmagazine.com. “Palm oil output is also flat, productivity is declining, while biodiesel demand keeps expanding due to solid subsidies and environmental policies.”
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These conditions, he explained, form the basis of a bullish outlook. “If production is flat and demand rises, logically prices must move higher.”
According to Mistry, the agricultural sector worldwide faces the same underlying problem: governments are not genuinely supporting growth.
“No country is truly pushing agriculture to uplift farmers. Their sympathy is only in words,” he remarked.
He specifically highlighted Indonesia and Malaysia—the world’s top palm oil producers—arguing that both still impose policies that can slow the industry’s progress.
“This industry has generated enormous prosperity. Indonesia should be promoting plantation growth—not holding it back with land seizures or other restrictions,” he said, adding that governments should rely more on tools such as export taxes rather than policies that “push the industry backward.”
Crude Oil Prices Too Low—A Turning Point May Come Next Year
Mistry pointed to global crude oil prices as a critical factor influencing CPO. He said the Trump administration’s pro-production energy policy has kept oil prices depressed.
“In my view, next year OPEC countries will no longer follow that push for increased production. Crude oil prices will rise,” he predicted.
A rebound in crude oil prices would create an additional catalyst for firmer palm oil prices, especially with biodiesel and sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) mandates expanding in many countries.
Also read: Regional Market Outlook Predicts Rising Palm Oil Output but Weaker Exports
U.S. Monetary Policy Will Shape Commodity Markets
Mistry also underlined the importance of U.S. monetary direction. He believes the Trump administration may pressure the Federal Reserve to keep cutting interest rates toward zero and possibly restart quantitative easing (QE).
“These policies will influence commodity prices, including palm oil,” he said.
Oversold Market—CPO Price Rally Expected to Begin Late November
Mistry noted that the palm oil market is currently in an oversold position, with fund investors exiting and suppressing futures prices.
“This weakness will persist until production genuinely declines. We will see the signs by the end of November,” he stated.
If indicators confirm a production drop, he expects the third-month contract on Bursa Malaysia Derivatives (BMD) to rally sharply.
He offered clear projections; 5,000 ringgit per ton by end-December 2025, and 5,500 ringgit per ton for January–March 2026.
The bullish trend would strengthen further if Indonesia adjusts its Domestic Market Obligation (DMO) or proceeds with its B50 policy.
“Indonesia holds the key. If exports are restricted, futures will soar immediately,” Mistry concluded. (P3)
