PALMOILMAGAZINE, KUALA LUMPUR – PublicInvestment Bank Bhd (PublicInvest Research) has cautioned that Malaysia’s crude palm oil (CPO) exports remain subject to a universal 10% tariff, despite the temporary 90-day suspension of retaliatory tariffs between the United States and China. This, they note, could raise costs for American buyers.
“The tariff impact could prompt U.S. food manufacturers to replace CPO with domestically produced soybean oil, even though soybean oil has been subject to an 84% tariff in China since April 10,” PublicInvest stated, as quoted from the New Straits Times on Thursday (August 7, 2025).
The research house expects production growth to continue, but demand to stay subdued amid ongoing global economic uncertainty. PublicInvest maintains a “Neutral” rating for the plantation sector and projects 2025 CPO prices at RM4,200 per tonne.
Similarly, Hong Leong Investment Bank Bhd (HLIB Research) maintains its CPO price forecast at RM4,000 per tonne for 2025 and RM3,800 for 2026, noting that price strength is likely to fade as global supply recovers.
“While trade tensions may push China to shift part of its edible oil imports to palm oil, the impact will likely be offset by weak demand and lower crude oil prices,” HLIB said. The firm also maintains a “Neutral” stance on the plantation sector, projecting CPO inventories to rise in April due to seasonal harvest patterns and post-holiday demand weakness.
Meanwhile, RHB Investment Bank Bhd (RHB Research) highlighted that current CPO prices remain elevated due to tight supply and low stock levels. Year-to-date, the average CPO price stands at RM4,717 per tonne.
RHB forecasts inventories will continue to rise in the near term but remain below two million tonnes. The bank maintains its “Overweight” call on the plantation sector, confident that medium-term prospects remain promising despite global challenges. (P2)
