PALMOILMAGAZINE, KUALA LUMPUR — Malaysia’s palm oil inventories are expected to rise for a fifth consecutive month in July, reaching their highest level in nearly two years as production growth outpaces exports, according to a Reuters survey released Monday (August 11).
Stockpiles are projected to climb 10.8% from June to 2.25 million metric tonnes, based on the median forecast of 11 traders, planters, and analysts. Crude palm oil (CPO) output is estimated at 1.83 million tonnes, up 8% from the previous month, reversing June’s decline and marking the strongest monthly production in a year.
The build-up in stocks was driven by a surge in production alongside adjustments to domestic consumption data, said Anilkumar Bagani, Head of Research at Mumbai-based Sunvin Group, a vegetable oil brokerage.
Bagani noted that inventory levels above 2 million tonnes during the peak production season are not a major concern, given Indonesia’s tighter export supplies due to its B40 biodiesel mandate.
“Still, palm oil faces stiff competition from soybean oil out of South America and the Black Sea region, both enjoying strong harvests this season,” he added, as reported by Palmoilmagazine.com citing Reuters on Wednesday (August 13, 2025).
Malaysia’s palm oil exports in July are projected to rise 3.2% to 1.3 million tonnes, rebounding from the previous month’s drop. However, Malaysia’s shipments were capped by aggressive discounts offered by Indonesia, which rushed to export as much as possible ahead of higher export levies taking effect in August, said Tajgir Rahman, General Manager of Trading and Procurement at IFFCO.
The Malaysian Palm Oil Board (MPOB) is scheduled to release its official monthly data on August 11.
July Forecast Breakdown (in metric tonnes):
- Production: 1,792,000 – 1,865,000 (median: 1,827,695)
- Exports: 1,146,012 – 1,500,000 (median: 1,300,000)
- Imports: 25,000 – 85,000 (median: 60,000)
- End-stocks: 2,099,580 – 2,490,312 (median: 2,250,000)
With official June stocks at 2,030,580 tonnes, plus July’s estimated production and imports, total supply last month is seen at 3,918,275 tonnes. Based on median export and end-stock figures, Malaysia’s domestic consumption in July is estimated at 368,275 tonnes. (P2)
