PALMOILMAGAZINE, KUALA LUMPUR — Crude palm oil (CPO) prices are expected to remain strongly supported in the RM4,100–RM4,200 per ton range in December 2025, with potential to rise toward RM4,500 per ton, according to projections from the Malaysian Palm Oil Council (MPOC).
MPOC attributes the positive outlook to stable import demand ahead of the Lunar New Year and Ramadan. At the same time, uncertainty surrounding Indonesia’s policies—the world’s largest palm oil producer—continues to lend buoyancy to prices.
“Market reports indicate that the Indonesian government may readjust its export levy to secure sufficient domestic feedstock. The timing of the biodiesel mandate upgrade, whether B45 or B50, will be a key determinant of 2026 export volumes,” MPOC noted in its official statement, as quoted by Palmoilmagazine.com from theedgemalaysia.com, Saturday (22/11/2025).
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The council also highlighted Malaysia’s accelerated shift toward converting agricultural waste into higher-value products. This initiative is expected to reduce emissions and support the nation’s 2050 net-zero ambition, aligned with SDGs 7, 12, and 13.
The implementation of MSPO certification and industry-level net-zero commitments has led to tangible reductions in greenhouse gas emissions. However, MPOC emphasized that further technological research and innovation are needed to make advanced technologies more efficient and affordable.
Output Surges to 10-Year High in October
Malaysia’s palm oil production recorded a significant jump in October, rising 11% to 203,000 tons—its highest monthly level in a decade.
Sabah contributed the largest increase, up 19.5% to 72,000 tons, followed by Sarawak, which rose 14.6% to 61,000 tons. Peninsular Malaysia logged 68,000 tons, an increase of 6.5%.
“Stronger output was supported by a delayed monsoon, improved fertilization, and favorable rainfall patterns throughout 2024,” MPOC said.
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Exports Strengthen but Stockpiles Continue to Rise
Exports climbed 18.6% in October—an increase of 265,000 tons—to reach 1.69 million tons. Sub-Saharan Africa posted the strongest performance with a record 577,000 tons, accounting for 34% of Malaysia’s total exports. Shipments to China also reached a five-month high at 110,000 tons.
While export growth outpaced production, Malaysia’s CPO inventory still rose to 2.46 million tons—its highest level since April 2019. MPOC clarified that the increase was driven not by production or export dynamics, but by weaker domestic consumption.
Between January and October 2025, Malaysia imported 708,000 tons of palm oil from Indonesia—an increase of 266% compared with the same period last year.
Global Market Pressured by Rising Stockpiles
On the global stage, palm oil prices fell 4% through November amid persistent inventory buildup. Prices for sunflower, soybean, and rapeseed oil remained relatively stable, widening palm oil’s discount in the vegetable oil market.
As of mid-November, CPO traded at a discount of US$120 to sunflower oil, and at discounts of US$48 and US$34 to soybean oil and rapeseed oil, respectively. (P2)
