InfoSAWIT, NUSA DUA - Foreign Agricultural Services, United States Department of Agriculture (USDA), Chris Rittgers told that the trade war between China and United States of America (USA) would influence the export and import of soybean.
Since the trade war run, China has boycotted soybean imports from USA and changed it from Brazil. China predicted, there would be decreasing import of soybean in 2018 – 2019 from 93.9 million to 83.7 million ton.
“The policy to reduce the soybean import urged China to get the alternative of vegetable oil. Of course, the choice is palm oil from Indonesia,” Christ said in the 14th International Palm Oil Conference and 2019 Price Outlook in Nusa Dua, Bali where InfoSAWIT also attended, Friday (2/11/2018).
But Christ ensured that the decision would press the soybean price. In the contrary, it would be a benefit for USA for having more soybean stock when the demand and price get more expensive.
James Fry, the Chairman of LMC International, Oxford, United Kingdom told the same. He thought, the policy published by Donald Trump a little bit influenced the soybean price. But on the other hand, it presses the CPO price for the Brent price is corrected too.
The main reference to CPO price is the Brent. It regulates the trade of vegetable oil on the crude oil and the management of trade of palm methyl ester (biodiesel) and really influences the premium CPO through its stock level.
But Fry ensured that the biggest victims of the trade war are the soybean farmers in USA. “Their income may be less, about 20%,” he said.
He also mentioned, since 2007 the crude oil has become the basic price for the vegetable oil in European Union. Four times ever since 2012 CPO in European Union was less than the basic price which should actually be equal to Brent price.
“The key factor that influences the nowadays price is the cycles of palm oil production. For the first time after a very long time, the output cycles in Malaysia and Indonesia is not the same as what it is hoped,” Fry said. (T2)