InfoSAWIT, JAKARTA – The Center for International Forestry Research (CIFOR) did researches, such as, the impact of national and international policies to palm oil sectors. The simulation was done by system dynamic modeling within the value chain analysis approach.
The dynamic modeling is the model of changing situation by understanding the changing system from time to time by observing the feed-back of the change to the system (Forrester, 1976).
The causal diagram which develops the IPOS modeling is in picture 1. It is described that palm oil produced in the factory is distributed to the domestic distillation or exported to the markets globally.
The causal diagram also considers that the palm oil markets globally are determined by the competition with the producers and other countries’ import duty. Besides, they are influenced by the competition with other kinds of vegetable oil, such as, soybean, sunflower, rapeseed, and others. The diagram describes the material flows, such as: a) the plantation width, the fresh fruit bunch production, palm oil, and its derivatives; b) the cash from the markets to the distillation, factories, and the factories to the smallholders or the plantation managers; and c) the carbon flow in every activity.
Data in this model is based on the survey result, official sources, such as, the ministries, instances, the central and regional governments, the staffs, and other trustable sources, such as, the scientific journal researches, credible organizations.
The feed-backs of the components which were researched to the system are: a) the dynamic of palm oil plantation width, the fresh fruit bunch production and the deforestation; b) dynamic of factories, distillation, and the crude palm oil (CPO) production; c) dynamic of palm oil markets; d) the income from the exports to the country and the CPO fund; e) dynamic of green – house gas emission in palm oil sector; and f) employment in palm oil sector. The modeling ran for about 30 years. After the simulation with business as usual (BAU) data, the model verification was done by matching the simulation result with data and estimation from many sources, such as, ministry of agriculture, IPOA, and InfoSAWIT. (Herry Purnomo dan Sonya Dyah Kusumadewi/peneliti Center for International Forestry Research - CIFOR).
For more, please read InfoSAWIT, April 2020