PALMOILMAGAZINE, KUALA LUMPUR — Malaysia’s crude palm oil (CPO) inventories are projected to surge for the fifth consecutive month in July 2025, reaching the highest level in nearly two years. The rise is driven by production growth outpacing export gains, according to a Reuters survey released on Monday (4/8).
Based on the median estimates from 11 industry participants — including traders, analysts, and plantation companies — Malaysia’s palm oil stocks are expected to climb 10.8% month-on-month to 2.25 million metric tons.
CPO production is also showing strong momentum, projected at 1.83 million metric tons — up around 8% from June and marking the highest level in a year, after a brief dip in the previous month.
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Anilkumar Bagani, Head of Research at Mumbai-based vegetable oil brokerage Sunvin Group, said the inventory increase is due to higher output and adjustments to domestic consumption data. However, he noted that stocks above two million tons during peak harvest season remain reasonable, especially as Indonesian palm oil exports are expected to be limited under the mandatory B40 program (40% palm-based biodiesel blend).
“Nonetheless, palm oil still faces stiff competition from South American and Black Sea soybean oil, both of which are enjoying bumper harvests this season,” said, as quoted from Reuters on Monday (August 4, 2025).
Meanwhile, Malaysia’s palm oil product exports in July are estimated to grow 3.2% to 1.3 million metric tons, reversing the decline seen in the previous month. However, the pace of exports is overshadowed by Indonesia’s aggressive move to sell palm oil at discounted prices ahead of its August export tax hike.
“Indonesia is pushing to maximize shipments before the new tariffs take effect, which is putting pressure on prices and narrowing Malaysia’s export opportunities,” explained Tajgir Rahman, General Manager for trade and procurement at IFFCO.
Official July data from the Malaysian Palm Oil Board (MPOB) is scheduled for release on August 11.
July 2025 Estimates (metric tons):
- Production: 1,792,000 – 1,865,000 (median: 1,827,695)
- Exports: 1,146,012 – 1,500,000 (median: 1,300,000)
- Imports: 25,000 – 85,000 (median: 60,000)
- Ending Stocks: 2,099,580 – 2,490,312 (median: 2,250,000)
With official June stocks at 2,030,580 tons, combined with estimated July production and imports, Malaysia’s total palm oil supply is projected at 3.918 million tons. Based on median export figures and ending stock forecasts, domestic consumption is estimated at around 368,275 tons. (P2)
