PALMOILMAGAZINE, JAKARTA – The Meteorology, Climatology, and Geophysics Agency (Badan Meteorologi, Klimatologi, dan Geofisika – BMKG) has just released their latest report, Climate Outlook 2025, which provides an overview of Indonesia’s climate conditions throughout next year. This outlook is expected to be used as a reference by the central government, regions, and various sectors in planning development related to or affected by climate change.
The Head of BMKG, Dwikorita Karnawati, revealed that no significant climate anomalies are predicted to occur in 2025. Major factors such as ENSO (El Nino-Southern Oscillation) and IOD (Indian Ocean Dipole) are expected to remain neutral throughout the year.
“However, weak La Nina is likely to occur until the beginning of the year, giving a small influence on rainfall in several regions,” he said in an official statement received by Palmoilmagazine.com, Wednesday (6/11/2024).
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BMKG also predicts a slight increase in monthly surface temperatures in Indonesia, especially from May to July 2025, with anomalies ranging from +0.3 to +0.6°C. The increase in temperature is potentially more pronounced in the southern parts of Sumatra, Java, West Nusa Tenggara (NTB), and East Nusa Tenggara (NTT), which need to increase awareness of the potential for heat waves.
Regarding rainfall, BMKG predicts that most parts of Indonesia will experience annual rainfall in the normal category, with an average between 1,000 to 5,000 mm per year. Dwikorita revealed that as many as 67% of Indonesian regions have the potential to experience rainfall of more than 2,500 mm per year, including Aceh, North Sumatra, West Sumatra, western Riau, most of Kalimantan Island, central and southern Sulawesi, and most of Papua.
In contrast, about 15% of the region is predicted to experience above-normal rainfall, which includes a small part of Sumatra, eastern East Kalimantan, central and northern Sulawesi, as well as parts of NTT and Maluku.
However, BMKG also noted that 1% of Indonesia is predicted to experience below-normal rainfall, including western South Sumatra, NTT, North Maluku, and northern West Papua.
In addition to the rainfall and temperature forecasts, BMKG also sees the potential for prolonged rainless day conditions that need to be watched out for in Bali, NTB, and NTT. With the climate outlook that has been released, BMKG hopes that relevant parties can plan more effective anticipatory steps to mitigate the impact of extreme weather conditions and prepare vital sectors in facing climate change next year. (P1)
