PALMOILMAGAZINE, JAKARTA As per the projections provided by the Geophysics, Climatology, and Meteorology Agency (GCMA), Indonesia is expected to experience an extended dry season in 2023. The anticipated duration ranges from 3 to 7 months, with the possibility of an extreme dry period lasting from 7 to 9 months. The peak of this dry season is forecast to occur in August, with the onset of rain expected in late November or early December 2023, particularly in equatorial regions.
In equatorial regions, some rainfall is expected even during the dry season. However, outside these equatorial areas, a more prolonged dry season is foreseen. The evapotranspiration during the dry season is estimated at 5 mm/day, or approximately 150 mm of rainfall per month.
Therefore, if the dry season persists for an average of four months, the water deficit could reach 600 mm. This deficit can be mitigated by considering water supply from the ground, for instance, at 200 mm, resulting in a net water deficit of 400 mm.
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Water deficit calculations in each location would be more accurate if rain data and days when rain fell for at least 10 years were available. (Water deficit calculation could be read in Buku Kelapa Sawit, Teknis Agronomis dan Manajemen, Tinjauan Praktis dan Teoritis on page 152).
Water deficits up to 400 mm could minimize palm oil plantation productivity by up to 60%; the production would pile up in 2–3 months only. But in general, by the end of this year, the water deficit would be up to 50 mm. The plantation productivity reduction symptom has not been seen yet. For the complete list, it can be seen in this table:
From the data published by GCMA, it is predicted that palm oil production on a national scale would decrease by up to 60%, which is 40% in 2023 and 20% in 2024. Malaysia and Thailand could be the same, which means palm oil production in the world would decrease by 30–40% in 2023 and by 20–30% in 2024.
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Palm oil production (crude palm oil (CPO) and palm kernel oil (PKO)) in 2022 reached 54 million tons and would decrease to 38 million tons in 2023 and to 43 million tons in 2024. It means there would be a lack of production of about 16 million tons and 11 million tons in 2024.
The CPO export ban significantly delivered impacts for smallholders. Their fresh fruit bunch (FFB) production could not be purchased by the mills (companies) that stopped operating. Their Facebook got cheaper, though the government revoked it one month later.
