PALMOILMAGAZINE, INDIA – Dorab Mistry, Director of Godrej International, shared his latest projections for palm oil prices at the Malaysian Derivatives Exchange, estimating them to range from RM 3,700 to RM 4,500 per ton from now until June 2025.
He expressed optimism about the potential for a new bull market beginning between January and March 2024, driven by increased demand for the Chinese New Year and Ramadan.
Mistry emphasized that climate conditions in South America will play a crucial role in determining palm oil and other vegetable oil prices. Although rainfall in the region has been delayed, he expects recovery to occur soon. “The uncertainty surrounding whether the rain will support planting is the main concern,” he stated, as quoted by Palmoilmagazine.com during the Globoil India 2024 event on Friday (September 20, 2024).
Also Read: Godrej Agrovet Limited: Pioneering Sustainable Palm Oil Industry in India
He also indicated that soyoil prices at the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) could rebound as the U.S. dollar weakens. The rising demand for biodiesel in the U.S. and the shift from Blenders Credit to Producers Credit are likely to positively influence soyoil price prospects.
Furthermore, Mistry noted that any announcements regarding sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) would act as an additional bullish factor for the vegetable oil market. He anticipates that by 2025, the supply of sunflower oil will be limited, reducing competition for soyoil and rapeseed, which is expected to support higher vegetable oil prices.
Palm oil production showed the decreasing trend. This also would have something to do with crude palm kernel oil price that could be the same as coconut price at about US$ 1.700 to 2.000 CIF Rotterdam from now to June 2025.
With the support of biofuel mandate, vegetable oil price could be more bullish starting from January 2025. But Mistry reminded that the weather that could support the plants in 2024, may not last without any disturbance until the end of season.
In a whole, vegetable oil markets in 2024 and 2025 would have something to do with some factors globally, such as, the weather in South America, biodiesel demands in USA, the policy substitution about biofuel. Palm oil price could be stable until June 2025 and the markets would face the new bullish by the early of next year. (P2)
