PALMOILMAGAZINE, KUALA LUMPUR – Crude palm oil (CPO) prices are projected to trade within a consolidation range of RM4,000 to RM4,300 per ton throughout March 2026, supported by tightening short-term supply, stronger demand from India, and firm US soybean oil prices.
In a statement cited from Bernama, the Malaysian Palm Oil Council (MPOC) noted that despite supportive market conditions, abundant global soybean supplies and rising soybean oil exports from China could limit further gains in palm oil prices.
MPOC highlighted that China became a net exporter of soybean oil for the first time in 2025 and is expected to maintain that status in 2026, with exports projected to reach around 850,000 tons.
India accounted for nearly half of China’s total soybean oil exports last year.
Palm Oil Market Fundamentals Expected to Improve
Looking ahead, MPOC expects palm oil market fundamentals to gradually strengthen over the coming months.
Higher Malaysian exports in the first quarter, combined with accelerated shipments from Indonesia ahead of the planned export levy increase in March, are expected to reduce palm oil inventories in both of the world’s leading producers.
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Malaysia’s palm oil production in January 2026 declined seasonally to 1.58 million tons, marking a 13.8% month-on-month drop.
However, exports rose to 1.48 million tons, up 11.4% from December 2025 and representing the second-highest monthly export volume recorded over the past 12 months.
The increase in shipments was mainly driven by stronger demand from India and Egypt. Exports to India reached their highest level in 15 months, while shipments to Egypt climbed to a 13-month high.
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On the demand side, India is expected to increase palm oil consumption again as price competitiveness improves following late-2025 market developments.
Palm oil consumption in India is projected to rise by about 800,000 tons in 2026, while combined consumption of soybean oil and sunflower oil is expected to decline by around 400,000 tons.
Data from January 2026 already indicates the early signs of this shift, with India’s palm oil imports rising to a four-month high, while soybean oil imports dropped to their lowest level in 11 months. (P2)
