PALMOILMAGAZINE, JAKARTA – Indonesia’s palm oil production is expected to rise in the 2025/26 marketing year, reaching 47 million tons, according to the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) attaché in Jakarta. This projection marks an increase of 1.5 million tons compared to the estimated 45.5 million tons in 2024/25.
The growth is attributed to improved productivity, forecasted to climb to 3.26 tons per hectare, up from 3.16 tons/ha the previous year. Favorable weather and better fertilizer application are cited as key contributors. The harvested area is expected to remain steady at 14.4 million hectares.
As reported by Palmoilmagazine.com via MarketsFarm (Saturday, April 19, 2025), on the trade front, Indonesia’s palm oil exports are projected to increase by 1 million tons to 24 million tons. Major buyers — China, India, and Pakistan — are expected to remain Indonesia’s top export destinations. USDA data confirms that China and India are the world’s largest palm oil importers, followed by Pakistan in fourth place.
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However, this export growth may be tempered by rising domestic consumption, particularly driven by the B40 biodiesel mandate. Domestic usage of palm oil is projected to grow by 250,000 tons, reaching 22.61 million tons, as Indonesia ramps up its biofuel program.
As a result of the production increase and moderate domestic demand, ending stocks of Indonesian palm oil are also expected to rise, from 4.9 million tons to 5.29 million tons by the end of the 2025/26 marketing year.
Indonesia continues to lead as the world’s largest palm oil producer, contributing around 59% of global supply. Official USDA estimates for 2024/25 place Indonesia’s palm oil production at 46 million tons, with exports at 22.6 million tons (51% of global exports) and domestic consumption at 23.33 million tons, accounting for about 30% of global use.
Palm oil, as a major vegetable oil commodity, also significantly influences the pricing of other oils, such as canola, on the global market. (P2)
